Serbia's 14-year ruling party loses after opposition victory

Aleksandar Vucic and his Serbian Progressive Party lost political control of Serbia after 14 years following Sunday's election victory by the opposition Student List. The defeat marks a decisive end to the long-standing dominance of the party that governed the country since 2012. International observers are now monitoring how the new administration will handle the transition ahead of December's presidential elections.

Analysts indicate that immediate shifts in foreign policy are unlikely. Aleksandar Popov, director of the Centre for Regionalism in Novi Sad, stated that domestic cleanup will take precedence over regional diplomacy. He noted that the new authorities must first address a system that captured democratic institutions, including the judiciary, prosecution service, police, and media sector. Popov described this as tidying up at home before solving problems with neighbors.

Serbia's relations with its Western Balkan neighbors have often been strained by Vucic's nationalistic rhetoric. Popov said that relations with Croatia are not frozen but are marked by frequent sharp words. He recalled recent mass protests where Vucic accused Zagreb of organizing a color revolution. He added that relations with Montenegro are disrupted and issues with Bosnia and Herzegovina remain unresolved. Popov suggested that a new government led by experts could help stabilize the region and revive hopes for European Union membership.

Vuk Vuksanovic, a lecturer in foreign policy at King's College London, predicted that foreign policy will change the least under the new government. He explained that many international and domestic structures shaping Serbian foreign policy will remain in place. Vuksanovic noted that Moscow viewed Vucic as a known quantity and that Russian influence will face a blow but not an overnight hawkish shift. Serbia still relies on preferential gas prices and has an unresolved dispute with Kosovo. Vuksanovic said the new government will not join EU sanctions against Russia and will maintain its policy of not recognizing the annexation of Crimea and Donbas, though ammunition deliveries to Ukraine may be reviewed.

The relationship with Israel also faces scrutiny. Bosko Jaksic, a foreign policy analyst, stated that while ties will not be severed, recent controversial agreements will be re-examined. Jaksic pointed to contracts concerning Serbian ammunition exports to Israel and Israeli surveillance equipment exports to Serbia. He noted that Netanyahu's government has lost another nationalist ally in Europe following Viktor Orban's removal in Hungary. Jaksic added that Serbia's future stance will depend on political developments in Jerusalem and the outcome of Israel's own elections.

Jaksic argued that the policy of sitting on multiple chairs, which he said brought Serbia more harm than good, will be re-evaluated. He suggested it is realistic to expect Belgrade to strengthen ties with the EU. All analysts agreed that the international community should expect a period of intense internal reform rather than sudden geopolitical realignments as Serbia enters this new political era.