Likud Officials Split on Winning Tuesday's Vote as Turnout Pushes Intensify

Israelis cast ballots on Tuesday in an election that allows the current government to complete its full term. Inside Likud, the ruling party led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, members are divided on the outcome. A party source said some officials feel confident in victory, while others worry that a strong turnout effort by opponents could shift the results.

The optimism among certain Likud members rests on internal forecasts from Shlomo Filber, who runs the party's polling operations. The source described the split in the room with a blunt assessment: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other." This internal uncertainty persists despite the party's belief that their base is solid.

A primary concern for Likud is the activity of organizations and nonprofits that, according to party sources, are directing large sums of money to get out the vote for the rival camp. These groups reportedly executed a wide-ranging campaign that included social media pushes, street signs, field events, and rides for Arab voters. They also worked to bring Israelis living abroad home to vote. One source labeled this effort "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing that these groups provide a support network outside standard party-financing rules.

Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee for its focus. The party claimed the committee concentrated on enforcing limits for campaign videos and public resources while paying too little attention to the nonprofits' work. Party sources noted that the organizations' funding amounts were cited without specific documentation, and they did not provide proof that the activity was illegal.

In response, Likud is preparing a large ground operation for Election Day. The strategy focuses on keeping right-wing votes from drifting to smaller slates. The party attempted to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade, to leave the race. Winter leads the People of Israel party. Negotiations involved Rabbi Eli Sadan, who later issued a statement supporting Winter. Likud is also courting backers of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha.

Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party has already withdrawn from the race following talks with Likud. During those discussions, officials raised the possibility of legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister. A survey published just days before the vote found that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided, adding to the unpredictability of the final count.